In previous years I’ve been a half-hearted follower of the Women’s Prize – often half or more of the longlist doesn’t interest me – but given that nearly two-thirds of my annual reading is by women, and that I so enjoyed catching up on the previous winners last year, I somehow feel more invested this year. Following literary prizes is among my greatest bookish joys, so this time round I’ve made more of an effort to look back through a year of UK fiction releases by women, whether I’ve read the books or not, and make some informed predictions.

Here is the scope of the prize: “Any woman writing in English – whatever her nationality, country of residence, age or subject matter – is eligible. Novels must be published in the United Kingdom between 1 April in the year the Prize calls for entries, and 31 March the following year, when the Prize is announced.” (Note: no novellas or short stories; the judges are looking for the best work by a woman – or a trans person legally defined as a woman.)

Based on the books by women that I have admired, loved, or found most relevant in 2020‒21, here are my predictions for the longlist, which will be revealed on March 10th (two weeks from today) and will contain 16 titles. I’ve aimed for a balance between new and established voices, and a mix of genres. I link to my reviews where available.

1. The Vanishing Half by Brit Bennett
2. Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
3. Exciting Times by Naoise Dolan
4. Burnt Sugar by Avni Doshi
5. Mrs Death Misses Death by Salena Godden
6. Transcendent Kingdom by Yaa Gyasi
7. Sisters by Daisy Johnson
8. Pew by Catherine Lacey
9. No One Is Talking about This by Patricia Lockwood – currently reading
10. A Burning by Megha Majumdar*
11. The Glass Hotel by Emily St. John Mandel
12. Hot Stew by Fiona Mozley**
13. Outlawed by Anna North
14. Love After Love by Ingrid Persaud
15. The Mermaid of Black Conch by Monique Roffey***
16. The Liar’s Dictionary by Eley Williams

* Not read yet. It seems like this year’s Home Fire.

** Not read yet, but I loved Elmet so much that I’m confident this will be a hit with me, too.

*** Not read yet. I plan to read it, but after its Costa win there’s a long library holds queue.

Note: “The Prize only accepts novels entered by publishers, who may each submit a maximum of two titles per imprint and one title for imprints with a list of five fiction titles or fewer published in a year. Previously shortlisted and winning authors are awarded a ‘free pass’ in addition to a publisher’s general submissions.”

• Because of all the funds the publishers are expected to contribute to the Prize’s publicity at each level of judging, the process unfairly discriminates against small, independent publishers.

Bernardine Evaristo is the chair of judges this year, so I expect a strong showing from BIPOC and LGBTQ authors AND a leaning towards experimental prose, probably even more so than my above list reflects.

Other novels I considered:

Runners-up – books that I enjoyed and would be perfectly happy to see nominated:

• Milk Fed by Melissa Broder – not reviewed yet
• Here Is the Beehive by Sarah Crossan
• The Group by Lara Feigel
• Unsettled Ground by Claire Fuller – not reviewed yet
• Artifact by Arlene Heyman
• The Book of Longings by Sue Monk Kidd
• A Town Called Solace by Sue Lawson – not reviewed yet
• Monogamy by Sue Miller
• What Are You Going Through by Sigrid Nunez
• Islands of Mercy by Rose Tremain

Reads that didn’t match up for me, but would be eligible:

• When the Lights Go Out by Carys Bray
• The New Wilderness by Diane Cook
• Tennis Lessons by Susannah Dickey
• The Pull of the Stars by Emma Donoghue
• As You Were by Elaine Feeney (DNF)
• The Charmed Wife by Olga Grushin
• Miss Benson’s Beetle by Rachel Joyce
• The Animals in That Country by Laura Jean McKay
• Scenes of a Graphic Nature by Caroline O’Donoghue
• True Story by Kate Reed Petty (DNF)
• Rodham by Curtis Sittenfeld
• The Lamplighters by Emma Stonex – currently reading
• Redhead by the Side of the Road by Anne Tyler
• little scratch by Rebecca Watson
• Three Women and a Boat by Anne Youngson

Haven’t had a chance to read yet / don’t have access to, so can only list without comment (most likely alternative nominees in bold):

• Against the Loveless World by Susan Abulhawa
• You Exist Too Much by Zaina Arafat
• The Push by Ashley Audrain
• If I Had Your Face by Frances Cha
• [The Death of Vivek Oji by Akwaeke Emezi] – Update: would not be eligible according to the new requirement that trans people be legally defined as female; before that regulation was in place, Emezi was longlisted for Freshwater.
• Sea Wife by Amity Gaige
• The Wild Laughter by Caoilinn Hughes
• How We Are Translated by Jessica Gaitán Johannesson
• Consent by Annabel Lyon
• A Crooked Tree by Una Mannion
• The Last Migration by Charlotte McConaghy
• The Art of Falling by Danielle McLaughlin
• His Only Wife by Peace Adzo Medie
• A Ghost in the Throat by Doireann Ní Ghríofa
• Acts of Desperation by Megan Nolan
• Fake Accounts by Lauren Oyler
• An Ordinary Wonder by Buki Papillon
• Detransition, Baby by Torrey Peters
• Jack by Marilynne Robinson – gets a “free pass” entry as MR is a previous winner
• Belladonna by Anbara Salam
• Kololo Hill by Neema Shah
• All Adults Here by Emma Straub
• Friends and Strangers by J. Courtney Sullivan
• Saving Lucia by Anna Vaught
• We Are All Birds of Uganda by Hafsa Zayyan
• How Much of These Hills Is Gold by C. Pam Zhang

I overlapped with this Goodreads list (which I didn’t look at until after compiling mine) on 28 titles. It erroneously includes The Anthill by Julianne Pachico – not released in the UK until May 2021 – but otherwise has another nearly 50, mostly solid, ideas, such as Luster by Raven Leilani, Blue Ticket by Sophie Mackintosh, and Death in her Hands by Ottessa Moshfegh.

See also Laura’s and Rachel’s predictions.

Any predictions or wishes for the Women’s Prize longlist?